Looking Back to Move Forward: Why History Matters in Policy Analysis
When we think about policymaking, it’s easy to focus only on what’s happening now—new decisions, updated laws, shifting public priorities. But what if understanding today’s policies requires looking back, sometimes far back, into the past? This blog post explores how taking a historical approach to policy and policy documents enriches our understanding of public decision-making. Drawing on the work of leading scholars in the field, I argue that history isn’t just context—it’s part of the explanation.
A Historian’s Take on Policy
While my research is grounded in historical analysis, I also draw on insights from the policy sciences. Political scientist L.A. Pal identifies three styles of policy analysis:
- Descriptive analysis, which includes content and historical analysis;
- Process analysis, which looks at how policy is made; and
- Evaluation analysis, which assesses outcomes using logical, empirical, or ethical frameworks.
Pal’s inclusion of historical analysis as a core method shows that history and policy are not separate disciplines—they’re interwoven.
Challenging the “General Linear Reality”
In their discussion of policy development, Michael Howlett and Jeremy Rayner echo Pal’s recognition of history’s importance. They critique what sociologist Andrew Abbott calls the “general linear reality” model—the idea that policies result from clear, empirical cause-and-effect processes driven by consistent social forces. This linear approach underpins what’s known as the stochastic method of policy modelling, which tends to minimize the role of history as little more than a string of disconnected moments.
Critics like Craig Calhoun have dismissed historical analysis in policy studies as offering only “non-cumulative, thick description.” But Howlett and Rayner strongly disagree. They argue that approaches such as path dependence, contingent sequences, and punctuated equilibrium models demonstrate that policy change is rarely straightforward or linear. Instead, past decisions shape the options available in the present—sometimes in subtle, often powerful, ways.
They point out that even studies which claim to be empirical often adopt what they call a “narrative positivist” approach. These studies work backward from policy outcomes to reconstruct a coherent storyline—a method that’s closer to historical reasoning than it might first appear.
Taking the Long View: Pal’s Historical Frame
Returning to L.A. Pal, another key insight is his call to stretch our timeline. Rather than locating the origins of policy sciences in the post–World War II period—as is common—Pal traces them back to the late nineteenth century, rooted in the practices of statecraft. This longer historical view is crucial for my research, which examines the expansion of sewerage systems in Halifax alongside the emergence of modern policy practices.
Why does this timing matter? Because it shows the co-evolution of technology (sewers) and policy (how sewers were planned and governed). Together, they form what I call a techno-political complex—a tight relationship between infrastructure and institutional decision-making that shaped, and still shapes, how cities manage sanitation.
Pal also emphasizes that early statecraft was not taught in schools or formalized through academic programs. Instead, it relied heavily on precedent—the accumulated wisdom of experienced statesmen. This informal reliance on “what worked before” laid the groundwork for what we now recognize as ideological path dependence in policy: once an approach is adopted, it becomes self-reinforcing over time.
Why This Matters Today
Recognizing the historical dimensions of policy doesn’t just enrich our understanding—it reveals the roots of modern policy decisions and institutional habits. By aligning with Pal, Howlett, and Rayner, I argue that policies are shaped by long-standing assumptions, evolving practices, and deeply embedded narratives. This is especially evident in infrastructure projects like sewer systems, where the decisions of the past still influence what’s possible (or thinkable) today.
Taking a historical lens allows us to see policymaking not as a clean slate with each new decision, but as a layered, contingent, and deeply political process. That perspective isn’t just academically interesting—it’s essential if we want to build more responsive, informed, and reflective public policies.
